Indy’s Outlook for the Midterms

By Junior Political Pundit Indiana Behr

SPECIAL ELECTION COVERAGE

The midterms are today, and the outlook is…. unclear. In the age of more political polarization than we’ve seen in decades, electoral prediction has gotten much harder. This election’s results are likely to greatly affect our country’s political future, with issues like crime, abortion, taxes, and the Biden administration’s political agenda being in play. I am going to show some of my predictions and some interesting info about what’s to come. I am going to start with some competitive Senate elections, an unlikely gubernatorial standoff, and the swingy Congressional race in a new district that covers Rancho Mirage, Palm Springs, Palm Desert, and  La Quinta. 

Pennsylvania Senate

One of the most prominent Senate races in this cycle is the Pennsylvania Senate race. The incumbent, Pat Toomey (R), announced his intention to retire last year, and almost immediately, a bitter Republican primary broke out. The initial frontrunner was the Trump-endorsed former House candidate Sean Parnell, but after a child custody battle with his estranged wife made its way to the media, he withdrew, and shortly after, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz and wealthy businessman Dave McCormick entered the race. Oz initially lost several polls, and the race seemed to lean in McCormick’s favor… until Trump endorsed Oz. He experienced a surge after this, and after a long election with threats of recounts, Oz won by just 0.07%, less than 1,000 votes.

The Democrats saw this seat as a potential flip in their favor, especially with the incumbency advantage gone. John Fetterman, the incumbent Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania, created an exploratory committee early on, and later officially entered the race. Then, a few months later, Rep. Conor Lamb entered; however, he failed to gain traction even when Fetterman attracted criticism for an incident where he chased a Black jogger with a shotgun in 2013 while mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania. Fetterman stated he believed the man was connected to a recent shooting, but the jogger was not. Though Lamb received a multitude of endorsements, including three members of the House in Pennsylvania, and over thirty State Representatives, that ultimately was not enough, and Fetterman won with a margin of 32%, sweeping every single county. 

Days before winning his primary, John Fetterman suffered a stroke. This has become a central point of the campaign. Due to this, Fetterman has publicly required the use of closed captioning devices to speak with reporters, and he used these devices during his debate with Oz. He has struggled to speak at times as a result, and this showed during the debate, where he occasionally struggled to get words out. Oz has been criticized for being out of touch with Pennsylvanians. Many people have claimed that Oz lived in New Jersey prior to the election, and he has also been called out for promoting medical practices not approved by the FDA on his show. Initially Fetterman led all polls by wide margins; however, it has gotten much closer over the last several weeks. Now, a couple polls show Oz with the lead. FiveThirtyEight has moved their prediction from “Lean D” (barely Democrat) to “Toss-Up.”

Georgia Senate

Another high-profile Senate Race is Georgia’s, where incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) is defending his seat against former football star Herschel Walker (R). The primaries for this race were not very contentious, and both won by very wide margins with no serious competition. The general election, on the other hand, has been the most controversy-filled this year in my opinion. 

Almost all of these controversies surround Walker, yet he is still tied with Warnock in several polls, and he has even won several. Several news outlets have alleged that Walker paid for a woman to terminate her pregnancy, and on Monday, the New York Times reported that they had spoken to the anonymous woman, and she reportedly told them that two years after that incident, he unsuccessfully lobbied her to terminate another pregnancy. Walker has denied these allegations. Many have accused Walker of hypocrisy, as his campaign platform states that he has a pro-life stance. Other parts of his past, such as his unsubstantiated claim that he was an FBI agent, or his admittance that he played Russian roulette have also come under scrutiny. Walker may struggle in the general election due to these scandals.

New York Governor

New York, a typically blue state, is seemingly facing an unlikely competitive race. After two competitive primaries, polling has indicated this race is down to the wire, with most showing incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul (D) ahead. Hochul, the former New York Lieutenant Governor, became governor following the resignation of Andrew Cuomo due to a sexual harassment scandal. The race instantly had a shake-up, as several candidates jumped into the Democratic primary for the position. Attorney General Letitia James launched her campaign early, but withdrew due to polls showing her trailing, and she is now running for reelection. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and New York Representative Thomas Suozzi also ran, but both candidates did not do well, sometimes polling in the single digits. Ultimately, Hochul won the primary by nearly 40%. This indicates that the Democratic electorate is firmly behind her, but the question is whether turnout will be enough to bring her across the finish line in the general election.

On the Republican side of the aisle, a race that initially seemed competitive ended in a landslide. Representative Lee Zeldin, 2014 New York Governor GOP nominee Rob Astorino, and Andrew Giuliani (son of former New York City Mayor and Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani) were the three main candidates in the election. Despite previously aligning himself with Trump in the House, Zeldin painted himself as a moderate in contrast to other candidates. Polling showed the race was within single digits; however, this proved to be false when Zeldin won by over 20%.

New York is normally a solid Democratic state. After all, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by over 23% in the Presidential election. Despite that, this election has been uniquely close. One of the most prominent topics in this election is crime, and this is an issue where Hochul has attracted severe criticism. Crime has risen in New York City, and she has taken a hit for this. Hochul has criticized Zeldin’s support for the pro-life movement, and he deflected this by saying that he would not make any attempts to change reproductive health laws in New York if elected, a state where 63% of people have said they support expanded abortion rights. The latest poll from Emerson College shows Hochul at 52% and Zeldin at 44%, with 3% being undecided at this time.

US House CA-41

Following California’s redistricting, the incumbent Representative for Rancho Mirage, Palm Springs, and several other parts of the Coachella Valley switched from Raul Ruiz (D) to Ken Calvert (R). This race has become very competitive, as this is now a district that Trump won by just 1%. Trump endorsed Calvert, stating that he is, “a leader on National Security and Strongly Supports our Brave Military and Vets.” Calvert’s opponent is Will Rollins (D), a former prosecutor who received the second most votes in California’s nonpartisan jungle primary system, where all candidates are on the same ballot, and the top two candidates move to the general election regardless of party affiliation. Rollins has very effectively established his presence in the district. In fact, his signs are planted right outside of our school, and I see his television and YouTube ads daily. While I have seen the occasional Calvert sign, his presence is much less significant in the valley. The latest poll showed Calvert up by just 3 points, and Cook Political Report predicts this race as “Lean R,” their closest ranking after “Toss Up.” 

I hope you found some of these races interesting, and I encourage you to do more research about our local Congressional race and other local races, and, for any senior students, teachers, administrators, parents, or anyone else reading who is eligible, please vote!