When asked about the future of politics, blogger Elizabeth Shay chose to write about the future of the Grand Old Party.
By Elizabeth Shay
There’s no doubt about it, the question on every Republican’s mind is: What does the future hold for the GOP? In the wake of the Trump presidency, one thing’s for sure; we definitely have not heard the last of him. The general consensus is that “Trumpism is here to stay,” says Washington lobbyist and longtime GOP campaigner Ed Stewart (Cityam.com). Trump’s highly passionate group of supporters won’t just disappear into thin air. Commentators are convinced that Trump will continue to be extremely influential within the party in the coming years, whether it’s through a new position as a kingmaker, or a re-run in 2024, “reinvigorated after four years of tweet-sniping from the sidelines” (Commondreams.org). This would not be the first time a president ran non-consecutively; Grover Cleveland was successfully reelected in 1893, four years after his initial term. It is not in Trump’s nature to roll over and die, and he will likely emerge in four years to launch another campaign, which poses the question of whether he will be the Republican nominee. But is there any Republican who could pose a viable challenge to Donald Trump, who has “so dominated the thinking of the Republican Party for the past four years that there hasn’t been any more room for new leaders to emerge, for new ideas to emerge to counter Trumpism or offer an alternative view point [sic] or way forward” (Stewart).
Anyone who attempted to emulate Trump would probably not be successful and may not garner the needed support from his base. His unique rhetorical style and image as a businessman and not a traditional politician are part of his appeal. In a panel sponsored by USC regarding the future of the Republican party, conservative journalist Bret Stephens mentioned Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas as a possible contender for the 2024 election, referring to him as: “Trump with a higher IQ.” Stephens calls Cotton the “most intelligent expositor of Trumpist ideals,” and “other than Trump’s family, the most perfect heir” to the presidency. If this is the case, Tom Cotton may be the necessary person to retain the ardent Trump supporters while regaining some of the more moderate Republican votes that went to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Author and historian Douglas Brinkley, also on the panel, made an interesting statement, referencing a possible ticket with Nikki Haley at the top. In order to placate Trump not to run, the ticket could also include Donald Trump Jr. or Ivanka Trump as VP. This retains Trump’s base while moving in a more moderate direction. Several other panelists expressed support for former UN ambassador and Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, including Karl Rove and Bret Stephens. Another popular name was Dan Crenshaw, a representative from Texas and former Navy SEAL.
In order for the mainstream Republican party to become more moderate, they’d likely have to experience multiple electoral losses over the course of several years. However, as the country’s demographics rapidly shift, the party may not be able to afford losses in multiple election cycles. States that have been traditionally red, including Texas, Arizona, and Georgia became critical swing states and are projected to remain that way in the future. In order for the GOP to remain alive, they need to move closer to the center quickly, as time is not on their side. Karl Rove stresses the need for the party to build on diversity, regain the suburban vote, and take a strong stand against QAnon. Trump surprisingly expanded the Republican voter base, and saw increased turnout amongst Latinos (especially Cuban Americans), African Americans, and the white working class. In order to win future elections, the party needs to retain and expand upon these votes.
When you think of the GOP, the word “young” does not exactly come to mind. Bret Stephens says that Trump may have turned away young voters from the party for the rest of their lives. Members of Gen Z tend to lean left much like millennials (NPR). Nevertheless, conservative youth groups such as the Young America’s Foundation and Turning Point USA have significant membership, demonstrating a presence of young Republicans in the country. The Republican party needs to expand their young voter base in order to even be remotely successful in the coming years. According to The Atlantic, “. . . in 2024, the two younger generations are expected to equal the older ones as a share of actual voters on Election Day.” The Democrats have attracted the attention of younger generations in part because of their election of diverse leaders, in terms of gender and race. Interestingly, the average age of the Democratic leadership in the House is 72 years old, compared to 48 years for Republicans (Quorum). And just this year, 25-year-old Madison Cawthorn won North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, becoming the youngest Republican elected to the House (New York Times).
How the Republicans will proceed remains to be seen. The ideological future is uncertain for both parties, and only time will reveal the answers to the questions that remain unanswered. One thing is certain, these years will definitely be studied closely by future historians.
Sources:
https://www.quorum.us/data-driven-insights/the-115th-congress-is-among-the-oldest-in-history/
Future of Politics Editor: Jake Sonderman
I admit I am not a voice of neutrality. The Republican party is no more, they gave up any control to Trumpism when they ran him on 2016 and then elected NO PLATFORM in 2020. The platform was…whatever Trump wants. I never thought in a million years I would agree with Karl Rove, but indeed I do. We will see what evolves, but I’m of the ilk that hopes Trump will not escape his business or political crimes and will go away one way of another.
We all shall see…..
NOR AM I OF THAT ILK.
I AM, however, inclined to mourn the tragedy of 70 million American heads buried in the sand.
There is a strong future for the Republican Party. Although he was touted as a fascist white supremacist for four years Trump made strong gains in the minority vote and lost the white male vote by around 6 points. Not to mention over 70,000,000 votes in total. I doubt that is because of his questionable dedication to comparing himself to Abraham Lincoln. Despite being portrayed as the nation’s ultimate enemy for four years by mainstream press, celebrities, and Gen Z performative activism across social media, the Republican turnout was incredibly strong. 2020 should have been a textbook blowout against Republicans across the country due to President’s Trump’s historically low popularity in the midst of a massive economic downturn. Yet, Democrats lost in state legislatures, the House, and are in a desperate fight for Senate control, which, to be fair, seems to be a virtual tie at the moment.
The Republican Party should seriously consider working to build this newfound coalition, and the Democratic Party needs to look inward and ask themselves why their President-Elect is preaching healing and unity while the exceedingly popular Representative from NY-14 called for a blacklist of “sycophants” who supported Trump (and then doubled down on it)!